Saturday, March 10, 2012

Deriving a Heuristic for Predicting NCAA Tournament Results

It's not an althorithm,

Since the inception of the 64-team tournament in 1985, each seed-pairing has played a total of 108 first-round games, with the following results:
  1. The #1 seed is 108–0 against the #16 seed (100%).
  2. The #2 seed is 104–4 against the #15 seed (96.30%).
  3. The #3 seed is 92–16 against the #14 seed (85.19%).
  4. The #4 seed is 85–23 against the #13 seed (78.70%).
  5. The #5 seed is 72–36 against the #12 seed (66.67%).
  6. The #6 seed is 72–36 against the #11 seed (66.67%).
  7. The #7 seed is 65–43 against the #10 seed (60.19%).
  8. The #8 seed is 51–57 against the #9 seed (47.22%).
Therefore, when you fill out your NCAA Tournament bracket, always choose the higher-seeded teams in the first round, with possibly the #8 seed. 

Later on, go with a higher-seeded team.  It's not perfect; after all, how many tournaments ended with the Final Four lacking and first-seeded teams?
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    7 comments:

    1. MikeMarch 11, 2012 at 2:49 PM

      So a #16 seed is mainly in it for the bus ride.

      ReplyDelete
    2. Elvis Wearing a Bra on His HeadMarch 12, 2012 at 10:05 PM

      I checked, a number 16 seed team never beat a number 1 seed team.

      Duckbutt, using the additive rule for probability (32 events/32 first round games), your method would be right for an average of 20.4 games out of 32. It's effect is strongest for the top four seeds: going with the top four seeds yields 14.3 out of 16 correct picks.

      ReplyDelete
    3. Elvis Wearing a Bra on His HeadMarch 14, 2012 at 4:10 PM

      So, how do you see the Final Four?

      ReplyDelete
    4. RudolphMarch 16, 2012 at 2:51 PM

      How did you do on the first day?

      ReplyDelete
    5. BilboMarch 16, 2012 at 3:37 PM

      Sounds a little seedy to me ...

      ReplyDelete
    6. DuckbuttMarch 17, 2012 at 7:11 AM

      Well, my system is not foolproof. Two #2 seeded teams (Mizzou and Duke) choked yesterday.

      ReplyDelete
    7. DuckbuttMarch 17, 2012 at 7:16 AM

      Thanks for the observations, Mike Elvis, Bilbo, Svejk.

      My final four is Ky., Mich St. NC and Ohio St.

      ReplyDelete

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